Cumulative cash flow crosses zero
INDUSTRIAL BITCOIN MINING MODEL / 1 MW BASE CASE
Make the numbers
work harder.
A transparent, adjustable look at industrial Bitcoin mining economics. Change the assumptions and see where the project lands.
01 / ASSUMPTIONS
Shape the project
Site & installation
Size the build and its power bill.
100 kW10 MW
2025 industrial avg.
⌄
$0.02$0.18 / kWh
State average is a starting point. Replace it with your quoted all-in rate, including delivery and demand charges.
$250k$15M
75%100%
Bitcoin & network
Model the cycles that move mining revenue.
Live value is editable
$
−30%+50% / year
0%+60% / year
CalmerMore volatile
A scenario band around the trend, not a price forecast or confidence interval.
1 year20 years
Advanced operating assumptionsASIC efficiency, fees & operating cost
STATE ELECTRICITY REFERENCE U.S. EIA · 2025 annual industrial averageView source ↗
03 / SCENARIO OPTIMIZER
Make me a plan.
Find the smallest coordinated operating and installation adjustments that move your plan toward green, using the Bitcoin and network assumptions you entered.
—
Each adjusted value stays within 20% of your entry. A selected state electricity average stays fixed. Bitcoin, network, horizon, mining load, strategy, volatility, and transaction-fee assumptions stay as entered. Modeled results are not a quote or profit guarantee.
Download Plan02 / MODEL OUTPUT
Your mining outlook
NET OPERATING RESULT · YEAR 1BASE CASE
$—Above break-evenBelow break-evenVolatility range
Year 1 operating cost / BTC mined
After pool fees and uptime
All-in facility power cost
POOL MINING · SMOOTHED REWARDS
Steady sats. Shared luck.
A pool combines miners’ work and distributes rewards by contributed hash rate, less its fee. This smooths payout timing; it does not remove Bitcoin price, network, or operating risk.
SOLO DCA-STYLE ACCUMULATION · HOLD EACH BLOCK REWARD
Stack BTC block by block.
Keep the full subsidy and assumed transaction fees from every block this fleet finds. This is reward accumulation, with no scheduled cash purchase or sale.
EXPECTED BTC HELD · YEAR ——
SCENARIO VALUE AT YEAR ——
CHANCE OF 1+ BLOCK BY YEAR ——
Median accumulated BTC10th–90th percentile
ILLUSTRATIVE BLOCK-HIT OUTCOMES
P10 —MEDIAN —P90 —
Poisson event-path estimate across 800 scenarios; P10/P90 are illustrative outcomes, not confidence bounds. The expected stack is an average and may differ sharply from what a solo miner actually earns. USD value uses your BTC price-growth assumption; no taxes, custody costs, or sale are modeled.
PRICE SCENARIO RANGE · YEAR 10
Same mine. Different cycle.
LOW CASE—
BASE CASE—
HIGH CASE—
Volatility is modeled as a widened price path around your selected annual growth assumption.
TARGET SPEND · SELL OR HOLD
Target Spend: where should Bitcoin take you?
Set a BTC price trigger, then compare selling mining rewards with holding them through your selected horizon.
After a target sale, you could convert value to fiat and redeploy it into assets such as gold, silver, stocks, or fiat cash, depending on the providers and products available to you. This calculator models BTC sale proceeds only; it does not project returns on assets you might buy.
TARGET SPEND · BASE CASE
$—Net value after total project costs
Estimated strategy value minus installation and operating costs over time.
Above break-evenBelow break-even
LOW / BASE / HIGH apply your volatility slider as a yearly price-path sensitivity. The sell trigger is checked at each modeled year-end, not against intrayear market peaks. Rewards use expected-value mining totals; solo payouts arrive in lumpy, random blocks. Held BTC is shown at its end-of-horizon market value, which is unrealized until sold.
Project net P/L = realized BTC sales + end value of BTC still held − installation cost − modeled operating costs. No taxes, financing, hardware replacement, downstream asset returns, or sale fees are included. A BTC sale or exchange may have tax consequences; see the IRS guidance on virtual-currency transactions ↗. These scenarios are not a forecast or a recommendation to buy or sell.
How the model works ＋
Bitcoin rewards use your share of estimated network hash rate, an average 144 blocks per day, the current 3.125 BTC subsidy, assumed block transaction fees, operating uptime, and pool fee. The subsidy steps down by half every 210,000 blocks; future halvings are modeled at 10-minute target block intervals.
Network hash rate rises at your selected annual rate, which reduces your share over time. Electricity uses your continuous load multiplied by the IT load and PUE (1.05), hours, and all-in rate. The 30 J/TH efficiency sets estimated mining hash rate, with 97% of site capacity available to miners. Install cost is treated as upfront capital; taxes, financing, depreciation, curtailment revenue, hardware replacement, and salvage value are excluded.
Solo mode shows expected value and the Poisson probability of finding one or more blocks; actual solo outcomes are highly variable. Pool mode applies the selected pool fee. Future prices and network growth are assumptions, not forecasts. The range is a sensitivity scenario using your volatility slider; it is not a statistical confidence interval. USD values are nominal and not discounted.
Network inputs come from mempool.space’s public endpoints where available. State power rates are EIA 2025 annual industrial-sector averages. A state average is not your utility tariff or a quote.
Planning model only. Mining revenue and profitability are not guaranteed. Confirm your site’s actual power tariff, capacity, interconnection costs, equipment quote, taxes, and operating plan with qualified providers.
THE MOST IMPORTANT INPUT IS YOUR SITE
Talk with NMMINE.COM ↗Have a real power quote?
Use your actual all-in rate and project scope, then let’s review the facility assumptions together.